Ben Lee: The numbers behind Norwich City's season so far

A promising opening ten games – characterised by clear tactical improvements following last season’s shortcomings – has been interrupted by injuries to key players and a suspension to City’s captain Kenny McLean.

It’s clear these absences have had an impact on Thorup’s men, so I decided to take a look in more depth at the biggest individual contributors in his squad, as I explore Norwich’s season so far in numbers.

Shooting: Top and Bottom 5 Non-Penalty xG Performers

Expected goals (xG) is a metric used to assess the quality of a chance based on several situational indicators, including: the distance to goal, the angle of the shot, the number of defenders between the shooter and the goal, as well as the type of shot attempted.

These factors are assessed against a statistical database to measure the quality of the chance and the likelihood of a goal being scored on a scale of 0 to 1, with 0 representing an impossible chance and 1 representing a chance expected to result in a goal every time.

For instance, a header from the corner of the penalty area with ten defenders between the attacker and the goal will be given a lower xG value than a 1v1 chance from five yards. If the latter was worth 0.64xG, for example, we’d expect it to be scored 64% of the time.

While some fans contest the value of this metric, those within clubs certainly don’t. Like every stat, it has its drawbacks, but it provides a useful indication of the quality of chances a team is creating in a way that simply measuring goals cannot.

It separates the quality of finishing from collective performance trends so we can assess them both independently. A team scoring more than their xG are considered to be overperforming based on the chances they’re creating.

In the same way, a player scoring more than their individual xG is performing better than most players would if they were given the same chances. This metric can be of value to recruitment analysts in their search for the next Borja Sainz.

(Image: Ben Lee)

With Sainz overperforming his xG by 5.4 – a staggering 4.6 ahead of Callum Doyle in 2nd place – this metric is a clear indication of the Spaniard’s quality.

While Shane Duffy finds himself 5th in the xG overperformance rankings, it’s important to note that his impressive goal against Preston was worth just 0.28xG – an overperformance of 0.72 – taking him from joint 4th xG underperformer into the top 5 overperformers.

Currently scoring below his xG by 0.8, Josh Sargent sits 2nd in Norwich’s underperformance rankings. In fact, the American would be the biggest underperformer at the club if penalties

were included in these rankings; but he makes up for this with his contributions to chance creation.

Chance Creation: Goal Creating Actions (GCA)

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Sargent occupies Norwich’s top spot for Goal Creating Actions (GCA), creating an average of 0.59 goals every 90 minutes. Callum Doyle and Anis Ben Slimane aren’t far behind in joint 2nd place on 0.53 GCA, meaning they each create around a goal every two games.

Ball Progression: Progressive Passing

Progressive passes involve playing the ball at least ten yards closer to the opponent’s goal line from its furthest point in the preceding six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area.

Progressive passing distance, on the other hand, is the total distance completed passes have travelled towards the opponent’s goal.

(Image: Ben Lee)

Jose Cordoba is more progressive with his passing than any other Norwich player, playing the ball forward an average of over 600 yards per 90, with Callum Doyle sitting in 2nd place on just over 450 yards per 90.

Kenny McLean, Marcelino Nunez, and, more recently, Emiliano Marcondes complete a greater number of progressive passes covering less distance than Cordoba, with Nunez in 1st place completing an average of over 6 progressive passes per 90.

But Doyle’s combined contribution to both progressive distance and total progressive passes is perhaps the most noteworthy feature of these rankings.

It’s also worth mentioning that Gabriel Forsyth falls just below the 180-minute threshold for inclusion in these graphics but completes an average of 7.22 progressive passes per 90.

Passing Length: Retention versus Progression

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When we explore passing length more closely, it becomes clear that aside from progressive distance, Cordoba completes more short passes than any other Norwich player, with the Panamanian in 1st place on 38.2 short passes per 90.

When comparing passing length, it’s also notable that McLean tends to play more short and fewer long passes than Nunez. This begins to paint a picture of their respective roles in the team, with McLean focusing more on ball retention and Nunez as more of a ball progressor.

Ball Carrying: Progressive Carries and Take-Ons

Like progressive passing, progressive carries involve moving the ball at least ten yards closer to the opponent’s goal line, but this time by running with the ball rather than passing.

(Image: Ben Lee)

As is the case with xG overperformance, Borja Sainz skews this visualisation, completing 3.54 progressive carries and 2.18 successful take-ons per 90.

Jack Stacey is the only player who gets close to Sainz’s ball-carrying numbers with just over 3 per 90, while Oscar Schwartau is the closest in successful take-ons with 1.72 per 90.

Break-Up Play: Tackles and Interceptions

By combining tackles and interceptions, we can begin to assess players’ defensive contributions to breaking up and stopping opposition attacks.

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Kenny McLean’s role is clear, with the Scot ranking 1st for tackles won with an average of 2 per 90. Marcondes and Slimane come close to McLean in 2nd and 3rd place, respectively.

Callum Doyle ranks highest for interceptions, completing 1.8 per 90. But Kellen Fisher’s impact is the big standout in this combination of defensive metrics, with the young full-back winning 1.74 tackles per 90 and sitting in 2nd place for interceptions with 1.51 per 90.

Together, McLean and Fisher are Norwich’s biggest contributors to breaking up opposition attacks.

Last-Ditch Defending: Blocks and Clearances

But who stands up when attacks get beyond this point and attention turns to last-ditch defending? By combining clearances and shots blocked per 90, we can find out.

(Image: Ben Lee)

Shane Duffy is comfortably top on both metrics, with the Irish centre-back blocking an average of 1.07 shots and making over 5 clearances per 90. Perhaps as would be expected, Doyle and Cordoba are the 2nd and 3rd biggest contributors to these stats.

But it’s important to recognise that these cannot be used merely as a scale of good or bad defensive contributions.

Fisher, Slimane, and McLean all sit fairly low on both rankings, for example, but this does not mean they don’t contribute to last-ditch defending, particularly given dribbling or passing out of danger is not included in these metrics, and all three players make more tackles than most.

When assessing these stats as a whole, it becomes clear why the absences have had an impact on Thorup’s men. McLean and Nunez are significant contributors to ball progression; McLean is key to breaking up opposition attacks, and Sargent has created more goals than anyone else.

But we can also make a judgement on the most appropriate backups in the event of such absences.

Marcondes comes the closest to the progressive passing output of McLean and Nunez; Slimane and Fisher are the closest to McLean in terms of break-up play; while both Schwartau and Slimane provide at least some backup to the chance creation lost in Sargent’s absence.

While it’s obvious that Norwich are going through a challenging spell, the individual stats help to explain why, with key players in every phase missing concurrently.

Thorup’s tactical model is not inherently flawed, and, as a result, once players return and City rediscover their flow, performance levels should begin to return alongside them.

- Data via FBRef