After Norwich City's goalless draw against Stoke, Connor Southwell delivers six things you might have missed from the Bet365 Stadium.
1) Half full or half empty?
Two away games, two points and yet Norwich remain firmly in the hunt for the play-offs.
Whilst many of the 1,500 who made the long trip to Staffordshire may have left the Bet365 Stadium feeling underwhelmed at what their team had produced, David Wagner felt the point was another example of why this group will get into the top six.
The fact of Norwich being so close to the play-off simply doesn’t match up with the feeling surrounding their performances. That broken link has existed all season.
Many will argue that this Norwich group, which was so richly assembled, should be approaching matches in a more positive manner than this. Others will be presenting arguments about the sheer amount of load they have put in over the last week, the mounting list of injuries and Stoke’s form.
Both points have their merits. In truth, time will only tell whether this point is a useful one or not. Had they recorded victory at Huddersfield, it certainly would have been easier to stomach.
Depending on how full the glass of the viewer is, Millwall’s defeat to Huddersfield has either kept the door ajar for Norwich to muscle their way through or serves as yet another missed opportunity.
For as long as that remains a possibility, Norwich have to try and achieve it.
2) Horses for courses
Prior to this contest, you could almost sense Alex Neil’s excitement at the prospect of his team pressing relentlessly against Norwich.
Just a week ago, Tony Mowbray was speaking liberally about the success his Sunderland team had deploying that very tactic. Come full time, the Scot felt City played for a point – perhaps showed by the sheer amount of time Angus Gunn took to take goal kicks in the second half.
Pre-match, Neil said ‘when you come up against a team with nothing to press, it takes your high press out of it’. That’s what Norwich did – as is reflected in the statistics.
Norwich’s 36pc of possession is the joint lowest among of the ball that they’ve had all season, along with November’s game away at Swansea. Only nine matches have been played this season where City haven’t dominated that statistic.
Wagner sought to go more direct, and Norwich had fewer touches in the midfield third of the pitch than in any match this season. Their build up was non-existent.
It was also the fewest amount of both short passes (72 completed) and progressive passes (15) in any fixture. That all came by design as Norwich scrapped for a point against a side in-form.
3) Changing lanes
Some of the locals will have appreciated the doggedness and pragmatic approach that David Wagner deployed throughout this contest.
After some robust discussions in the wake of their 1-1 draw with Huddersfield, the German and his coaching team weighed up the variables amid injuries, three games in six days and Stoke’s form and decided a strategy of containment was the best option.
That, in reality, saw Norwich play a 4-4-1-1 formation and opt to go more direct. Max Aarons played further forward to solidify their wide right area and Sam McCallum even channelled Rory Delap to produce a long throw late on.
There wasn’t the same swashbuckling nature to their approach throughout this contest – Alex Neil was left slightly baffled by it all.
Undeniably, there is merit in Wagner’s thinking but for a group with a self-imposed expectation of automatic promotion, the set-up did feel at odds with how the group has been described throughout the campaign.
Only time will tell as to whether it was a good point or another opportunity dropped, but the approach is one that will be debated throughout the next fortnight’s break.
4) Taking stock
Saturday’s draw with Stoke was David Wagner’s 12th game in the Norwich City hotseat.
This is his record compared to the first 12 matches that Dean Smith oversaw at the start of their Championship campaign:
Dean Smith first 12 in the Championship: W7 D2 L3 – GS: 17 GC: 10 – Pts: 23
David Wagner first 12 in the Championship: W6 D3 L3 – GS: 20 GC: 12 – Pts: 21
The records are very similar. Smith took a greater haul of points and won an additional game plus conceded fewer goals. Wagner’s Norwich have scored more and drawn more.
That points the focus onto the group of players. Inconsistency has been a constant irrespective of the coach occupying the dugout. For Smith, the games that followed led to his own downfall after 13 months of struggling to implement a clear style and bring success to the club.
Wagner has brought identity and overseen a collective improvement – but after the break the challenge will be over whether Norwich can go again and produce a run of form in the final eight matches that will elevate them into the play-offs.
But this group will need to prove it can shake off the inconsistent and underperforming labels that have followed them around all season long. The spotlight is being directed on them.
In many ways, that was why Wagner argued that this point against Stoke was positive. It proved this group could dig in, albeit in large thanks to Angus Gunn’s heroics.
5) Spluttering strikers
Since Wagner took the helm, Norwich’s output in front of goal has been contrasting.
They’ve scored three goals or more in five of his opening 12 matches but have also failed to score in five.
The underlying data shows that Norwich have been overperforming their expected goals rate since Wagner took charge – that points to an element of a team running hot in terms of output coupled with some excellent goals that are often unsustainable.
Creativity has been an issue throughout this current campaign. All of City’s striker finds themselves short of goals.
Teemu Pukki is currently enduring his longest barren run since the second half of Norwich’s Premier League campaign in 2019/20 and he hasn’t had a run in this division as long without a goal.
Top scorer Josh Sargent has struggled to recapture his goalscoring form from the first half of the campaign. Since returning from the World Cup, the American has netted two goals in 14 matches compared to nine in 19 before being called up to the USA squad.
Then there is Adam Idah – who has only scored all season and is yet to find the net since Wagner arrived.
Many would argue that the issues lie with the production line rather than those players in particular – finding a solution to that problem has been beyond both Dean Smith and Wagner so far.
6) April holds answers
Eight games left. Three points from the top six. David Wagner believes the hunt is on.
Norwich fans, however, are less certain. With inconsistency littering their performances and frustration a regular theme from the terraces, there is still plenty of work to do if only to alter the narrative surrounding them.
The international break provides some respite amid several adversities but Wagner will need to find more answers to the pressing questions around whether this group has the capability to break in, and more crucially stay in, the top six.
Part of the narrative shifting will be proving they can compete and take points off teams in and around them. City will play Sheffield United, Blackburn Rovers and Middlesbrough in three of their next four matches.
It wouldn’t be overstretching their importance to describe it as a decisive run of matches. If Norwich can extract points, they will find themselves in control of their destiny. The status quo will see them swallowed up by the chasing pack.
Whatever the conclusion of this Norwich City story – April will hold the answers.
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